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Saturday, April 19, 2014

Study: Investment in Refurbishing and Maintaining Coal Plants Will Increase by 40 Percent

Between 2012 and 2017 the world’s coal-fired generating capacity will increase by more than 33 percent. Because of environmental regulations, the investment in modernization and rehabilitation of these coal-fired power plants will increase by more than 40 percent over the five-year period, including over $30 billion on new air and water pollution equipment. This the latest forecast in the McIlvaine publication Fossil & Nuclear Power Generation: World Analysis & Forecast.

(Megawatts)

World Region

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Total

 1,926,567

 2,040,155

 2,143,599

 2,274,107

 2,433,924

 2,579,539

 Africa

 47,418

 48,718

 52,818

 62,058

 63,408

 69,216

 CIS

 90,364

 90,814

 91,574

 92,174

 92,794

 93,294

 East Asia

 965,247

 1,015,697

 1,066,771

 1,130,961

 1,196,277

 1,253,567

 Eastern Europe

 68,903

 70,413

 72,013

 74,413

 79,023

 84,223

 Middle East

 23,266

 24,466

 24,966

 24,966

 28,966

 30,216

 NAFTA

 355,963

 357,988

 351,376

 352,026

 352,026

 352,026

 South & Central America

 11,033

 11,333

 12,913

 12,913

 15,463

 16,013

 West Asia

 164,777

 216,987

 268,322

 324,342

 405,597

 482,806

 Western Europe

 199,596

 203,739

 202,846

 200,254

 200,370

 198,178

 

Europe has reversed direction and is now counting on its coal-fired power plants to a much greater extent than had been anticipated a few years ago. The price of gas and renewables is higher than projected. By contrast, coal generation has remained relatively inexpensive even with the latest pollution controls.

Even France, which is the champion of nuclear power, is planning to use coal generation for the next 20 years. One of the biggest needs at the older coal-fired power plants in France and elsewhere is to upgrade to modern controls. Energy multinational EDF has selected ABB to supply total plant automation systems and long-term service support for three 600 MW units at the Le Havre and Cordemais coal-fired power plants in France.

Recently, EDF initiated an extensive program to modernize its Le Havre 4 and Cordomais 4 and 5 units to extend their operating life by 20 years to 2035. These three units are the largest coal-fired units in the EDF fleet and were built to an identical design in the early 1980s. Each has a generating capacity of 600 MW.

Despite the boom in shale gas in the U.S., the Energy Information Administration predicts that the U.S. will burn more coal in 2035 than it is burning today. However, most of this increase will come from modernization of existing power plants. Few new coal-fired power plants are likely to circumvent the anti-coal environmental advocates. These power plants will need to spend over $30 billion just on new air and water pollution equipment to meet the many new regulations.

In Asia, most of the investment is in new coal-fired power plants. However, the base of existing coal-fired power plants is substantial. East Asia has more than 50 percent of the existing coal capacity. In Japan, there will be greater reliance on coal due to the nuclear problems. In China, tough environmental regulations are leading to substantial upgrades of existing coal-fired power plants. Some coal-fired power plants are being removed from service for months while new scrubber sections are being installed.

Many existing units are operating at low efficiency. The price of coal has continued to increase. The result is there is a very attractive ROI on projects to reduce coal consumption. In some cases, the reduction in carbon dioxide also has economic benefits.

Fossil and Nuclear Power Generation forecasts and analyzes the markets for gas, coal, and nuclear power plants for every country of the world.

For more information on Fossil and Nuclear Power Generation: World Analysis & Forecast: http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=72#n043

 

 

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