The Aspen Institute and the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation (MAPI) released a new analysis of one possible scenario for U.S. manufacturing economic activity through 2025 showing many productive developments over the next 12 years if policy is changed.
The Manufacturing Resurgence: What it Could Mean for the U.S. Economy is based on a new economic forecast model developed by The Aspen Institute and MAPI that uses indicators of exports and imports; capital investments; energy supplies; regulatory and tax policy; and elements of the manufacturing skills gap to project conditions in manufacturing. The model focuses on positive developments in these indicators to show the possible expansion of the industry.
Generally, the model forecast surprising outcomes by 2025 in these good conditions. One of the most striking includes the prediction that manufacturing employment could grow as much as 307,000 per year to a total of 3.7 million jobs by 2025, which could raise the national GDP $1.5 trillion more than a “business as usual” baseline without changes recommended by MAPI and the Aspen Institute.
“With no changes in public policy the manufacturing base will continue to shrink as a share of GDP as it has for the past decade,” Stephen Gold, MAPI president and CEO said in a statement. “With just a few policy shifts, however, manufacturing in America can experience a resurgence that will ensure new innovation, increased productivity, more jobs, and a rise in living standards on our shores.”
To see more of the report’s conclusions, please see the MAPI website.