Economic growth remained weak in the third quarter of 2012, with all signs pointing to a continued sluggish pace, according to the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation (MAPI) U.S. Industrial Outlook.
The MAPI U.S. Industrial Outlook quarterly report, which analyzes 27 major industries, was promising in Q1, showing growth increasing by 2.7 percent and an annual growth rate of 10 percent. But growth has decreased throughout the year; the organization predicts growth will fall to 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter, and that 2013 annual growth will fall to 2 percent, a decrease from the most recent forecast of 2.3 percent.
In the longer term, MAPI predicts an increase in growth for 2014 to a 3.2 percent annual rate, with manufacturing production outperforming GDP growth.
“The outlook is for modest GDP growth throughout 2013 but it will not be until the second half of 2014 that the economy will grow at what could be called a moderate pace,” MAPI Chief Economist Daniel J. Meckstroth said in a statement. “Consumers continue to deleverage from debt and therefore can only increase spending commensurate with after-tax income adjusted for inflation. Less unemployment insurance income and increases in state and local taxes have eaten away at personal income gains.”
Of the 27 industries the report covers, “14 of these will show gains in 2013, four will remain flat and six will decline,” MAPI forecasts. In 2014, MAPI sees growth in 23 industries; the report does not offer a detailed economic forecast for three of the industries.
You can download the full report here.